Expected Value is a long-run estimate
Expected Value (EV) is a probability-weighted estimate of value across many hypothetical openings under the supported inventory and odds. It is useful for comparing repack structures; it is not a forecast for the next repack.
The metrics PackScout shows
PackScout uses the same metric definitions on Dashboard, All Repacks, and Learn so a label keeps one meaning wherever you see it.
- Gross EV
- PackScout’s estimated value of contents before fees and shipping.
- EV $
- PackScout Gross EV minus Repack Price.
- EV %
- The percentage PackScout Gross EV is above or below Repack Price.
- Buyback %
- Vendor-supported buyback coverage relative to Repack Price, reported directly or derived by PackScout from documented terms.
- Top Chase
- The highest-valued eligible related collectible currently identified.
Vendor-reported EV and PackScout EV stay separate
A vendor may publish its own EV using its inventory, odds, and valuation approach. PackScout independently calculates PackScout EV from supported post-processed evidence.
Vendor-reported EV and PackScout EV are separate estimates and are never averaged.
A missing estimate is not replaced with the other source, and disagreement does not mean either value was silently changed.
A worked example
This independent example is for explanation only and does not represent a current repack or vendor listing.
Confidence, coverage, and unavailable estimates
An estimate is only as useful as its supported odds, inventory, prices, and relationships. Coverage describes how much of that required evidence PackScout can support; it is not a promise that every source is complete or current.
Confidence describes the reliability of PackScout's estimate, not whether its EV is positive or negative.
Unavailable means PackScout does not have enough supported evidence to show the value.
An unavailable value is not zero. It means the comparison should wait for better evidence rather than filling a gap with an invented number.
Use EV as one comparison input
Two repacks with similar EV can still have very different odds, inventory depth, buyback terms, and ranges of possible outcomes. Review the underlying listing and evidence alongside the estimate.